新发突发传染病驱动的谣言传播建模与仿真——双重网络下的研究

Modeling and Simulation of Emerging and Emergent Infectious Disease-driven Rumor Preading——A Study under Dual NetwSorks

[目的/意义]传染病传播往往伴随着谣言,新发突发传染病更是如此。相应地,疾病防控过程同时也是谣言控制过程。对于谣言控制而言,理解其产生机制与传播规律具有基础意义。[方法/过程]基于疾病传染与谣言传播模型,通过引入创新扩散视角,提出了新发突发传染病驱动的谣言传播描述框架,构造了个体层面上的数学模型。在实验设计的基础之上,利用智能体建模技术展开了系统的仿真实验。[结果/结论]基于仿真实验数据的分析结果显示,除了谣言传播参数之外,新发突发传染病相关因素,包括疾病参数与流行病感知参数,亦能够对谣言传播造成具有统计显著性的影响。这一结论意味着,忽视谣言传播对于疾病传播依赖性的谣言治理策略可能并不如期望的那样有效,可能会造成治理资源的浪费,甚或造成相反的结果。

[Purpose/Significance]Infectious always accompanies rumors,which is especially true for emerging and emergent infectious disease(EEID).Thus,the disease process of disease containment is also the process of rumor control.For rumor control,understanding its generation mechanism and spreading characteristic is fundamental.[Method/Process]Based on disease contagion and rumor spreading models,an EEID-driven rumor spreading conceptual framework was proposed from an innovation diffusion perspective,and mathematical models were constructed at the individual level.Based on experiment design,comprehensive simulation experiments are conducted via Agent-based Modeling technique.[Result/Conclusion]Simulation experiment data-based results indicate:besides rumor spreading parameters,EEID-related factors,including disease parameters and epidemic perception parameters,showed statistically significant influences on the spreading of rumor.This conclusion means,rumor control strategies that neglect the dependence of rumor spreading on disease contagion may not be as effective as expected,may waste control resources,or even cause opposite effects.