考虑活动状态与破坏概率的岸坡动态危险性评价

Dynamic Risk Assessment on the Reservoir Slope Using the Integration Analysis of the Slope Failure Probability and Activity

传统地质灾害危险性评价方法完全基于地质背景条件,忽略了坡体的活动状态对危险性的影响,无法反映危险性的时变特征。针对上述不足,借鉴系统可靠度思想,提出了岸坡破坏概率案例统计模型,在此基础上,融合监测数据下岸坡破坏概率算法,建立了同时考虑岸坡地质背景与活动状态的动态危险性评价概率模型,成果在三峡库区巫峡段进行了应用验证。结果表明:本模型能够客观反映不同时段内岸坡危险性的周期性变化规律以及岸坡性能退化过程,可为岸坡危险性提供更为精细、客观、定量的评价结果,从而为水库岸坡动态风险管控提供有效的技术支撑。

The influence of slope activity state is neglected in traditional geo-hazard risk assessment method, so it can not reflect the time varying characteristic of risk. Aiming at above deficiencies, the idea of system reliability is used for reference, the case statistical model for failure probability of reservoir slope is put forward, based on that, the failure probability algorithm relies on monitoring data is combined in, and the probability model of reservoir slope dynamic risk assessment considering both the geological background and its active state is established finally. The application verification for this model was conducted in the Wuxia section of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The results show that: The periodic change rule in different periods and the performance degradation process of bank slope can be objectively reflected by this method, it can provide a more objective,more precise and more quantitative assessment result for bank slope risk, so as to offer an effective technological support for risk management and control of reservoir slope.