三个登陆台风造成云南灾害的天气成因研究

Research on the Weather Causes of Three Landfall Typhoons in Yunnan Province

利用FNL 1°×1°再分析资料,云南站点降水实况资料,中国台风天气网资料,气象灾情直报系统数据和中国气象灾害年鉴等资料,分析"威马逊""海鸥"和"天鸽"系统对云南造成的强降水及灾害成因,结果表明:"威马逊"灾情最严重,受灾和伤亡人数最多,"天鸽"直接经济损失低于"威马逊";"海鸥"灾情和直接经济损失均相对最轻。三个台风低压进入云南的位置和强度不同,其西移过程中造成云南大到暴雨的范围、落区分布明显不同,"天鸽"从文山州的富宁进入云南,位置较偏东偏北,向西南-西移动;"海鸥"位置则偏西偏南,从红河州的金平入境云南,向西北-西-西南移动;"威马逊"从文山州的麻栗坡进入云南,逐渐加强西北移。"威马逊"西行影响云南持续时间最长达78 h、影响范围最大,对云南9个州市造成影响,其次是"天鸽"持续影响时间达66 h、对云南7个州市造成影响,"海鸥"持续时间为54 h,影响范围相对较小。从水汽输送的情况来看,"海鸥"的净水汽量最大为20.53×10~7 kg/s,"天鸽"次之为15.07×10~7 kg/s,"威马逊"最小为14.03×10~7 kg/s,并且东向输送到云南的水汽量最大。西太平洋副高的位置和强度对西行台风进入云南有重要影响。"威马逊"影响云南以台风低压降水为主,"天鸽"和"海鸥"影响造成云南东部出现强降水与冷空气活动有关。

Based on FNL reanalysis data, precipitation data in Yunnan, as well as data from China typhoon weather network, meteorological disaster system, and China meteorological disasters yearbook, analysis is made to heavy rainfall and disasters causes in Yunnan province due to Typhoon "Rammasun", "Kalmaegi" and "Hato". The results showed that the "Rammasun" situated the hardest hit, which caused the economic losses and casualties more than"Hato"and "Kalmaegi ". The location and intensity of the three typhoons were different when they entered Yunnan, which leaded to significantly different in the range of heavy rain and distribution of rainfall area in Yunnan during their westward movement. "Hato" entered Yunnan form Funing in Wenshan where was located east-north and moving southwest-south;"Kalmaegi" was south-west, entered Yunnan from Jinping in Honghe and towards the northwest-west-southwest;"Rammasun" entered from Malipo in Wenshan, gradually strengthening during the northwest move. The westbound impact of "Rammasun" in Yunnan lasted up to 78 hours, with the largest scope of impact, affecting 9 cities in Yunnan. Followed by "Hato" which lasted 66 hours and 7 cities were affected in Yunnan. "Kalmaegi" lasted 54 hours and had the least impact range. In terms of water vapor transportation, the maximum net water vapor of "Kalmaegi" was 20.53×10~7 kg/s, followed by "Hato" which was 15.07×10~7 kg/s, and the minimum was 14.03×10~7 kg/s for "Rammasun", and the maximum water vapor is transported to Yunnan from the east. The location and intensity of the subtropical high in the western Pacific have an important influence on the entry of the westbound typhoon into Yunnan. "Rammasun" affected Yunnan mainly with low-pressure precipitation, while heavy precipitation in the east of Yunnan caused by "Hato" and "Kalmaegi" was related to cold air activities.