基于前景理论的突发事件应急决策动态方法研究

Dynamic Method of Emergency Decision-making Based on Prospect Theory

针对突发事件事前——事中动态演化过程和在事前具有不确定性预测信息的特点,考虑到事前防灾、减灾应急预案的实施效果会对事中应急响应决策方案的制定和实施造成影响的问题,基于前景理论,提出一种事前——事中两阶段突发事件应急决策动态方法。首先,对事前——事中两阶段突发事件应急决策问题进行描述,并以区间数的形式表示相关决策信息;其次,给出事前——事中两阶段应急决策的动态参考点的设置方法;然后,基于前景理论的思想,计算突发事件事前——事中两阶段的不同情景的综合价值及方案成本价值,即定量化描述决策者针对不同情景的人员伤亡、财产损失和方案成本的综合心理感知;最后,通过对事前——事中两阶段不同情景权重的计算,得到备选应急决策方案的综合前景值,并依据综合前景值的大小对方案进行排序,以选出最优方案。

Regarding the features of unpredictability of information beforehand, and the evolutional process of before-event and during-event emergency, we propose a dynamic approach to emergency decision-making both before-event and during-event based on prospect theory,by considering the possible consequence caused by the implementation effect of firsthand prevention and mitigation to the emergency response. Firstly, we illustrates the description of emergency decision-making issues in both before-event and during-event stages, as well as depicts relative determinants by intervals. Secondly, it provides with setup methods of dynamic references to emergency decision-making before-event and during event. Thirdly, based on the idea of prospect theory, we shows calculations of general value and plancost-a quantitative description of the decision maker’s comprehensive psychological perception regarding casualties, property losses and program costs at different scenarios. Lastly, via weighing the calculations of both before-event and during event scenarios, a comprehensive foreground value for alternative emergency decision-making options is acquired, along with the optimal solution grounded on the size of the composite foreground value.