基于风险矩阵和五元减法集对势的区域旱灾风险链式传递诊断评估方法

Chain Transfer Diagnosis and Evaluation Method of Regional Drought Risk Based on Risk Matrix and Five Element Subtraction Set Pair Potential

为进一步处理旱灾风险子系统及其中指标的发展趋势问题,在计算评价样本的指标数联系数、指标值联系数和平均联系数的基础上,引进五元减法集对势判断子系统风险趋势并诊断风险脆弱性指标,建立敏感性-适应性、脆弱性-危险性子系统风险矩阵链式传递得到旱灾风险等级,提出了基于风险矩阵和五元减法集对势的区域旱灾风险链式传递诊断评估方法,并应用于济南市。结果表明:济南市旱灾风险等级1999-2005年呈逐年降低趋势,风险趋于改善,其中2002年旱灾风险等级为4级(较强),其危险性子系统风险状态处于反势,其他年份逐年改善且子系统风险状态基本处于均势或同势。用五元减法集对势识别出了影响济南市旱灾风险等级的主要指标有森林覆盖率、城市日用水量、水库调蓄能力、城市水资源协调能力、降雨量,它们是济南市旱灾风险管理工作中需要重点监测或调控的对象。上述风险矩阵和五元减法集对势耦合的旱灾风险链式传递诊断评估方法可为准确判别资源、环境、生态等复杂集对系统所处状态及总体发展趋势提供新的有效途径。

In order to further deal with the development trends of drought risk subsystems and the corresponding evaluation indexes, five element subtraction set pair potential is proposed to identify the risk trend and vulnerability index, based on the calculations for index number connection number, index value connection number and average connection number of evaluation sample. In addition, the risk matrices of sensitivity-adaptation subsystem and vulnerability-hazard subsystem are established to calculate the drought risk. Then the method of regional drought risk chain transfer diagnosis and evaluation(CTDE-RMSPP) is presented based on risk matrix and five element subtraction set pair potential. The application results of CTDE-RMSPP in Jinan City showed that from 1999 to 2005, the level of drought risk decreased year by year, and the risk situation tended to be improved. In 2002, the level of drought risk was 4(relatively high risk), and the status of hazard subsystem is in the opposite trend. In other years, the levels of risk are improved year by year, the status of subsystems are basically in the balance or the same trend. The main factors affected the drought risk in Jinan are forest coverage, daily water consumption, reservoir regulation and storage capacity, coordination capacity of urban water resources and rainfall. These factors needed to be monitored or controlled in the drought risk management for Jinan. CTDE-RMSP Pcould provide a new and effective way to accurately identify the status and overall development trend of complex set pair systems in resources, environment and ecology fields.