用模糊层次分析法优选新药项目研究

Optimization of new drug projects by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

目的根据国家政策、企业战略和新药研究开发项目的特征,建立模型解决新药研究开发项目管理中的项目优先级评估问题,以实现有限资源的科学合理配置和科学决策。方法通过分析新药项目发展过程中的影响因素,建立多项目优先级评价标准体系,利用层次分析法确定各指标之间的关系并赋予指标权重,运用多级模糊运算构建优先级评价模型。结果以心脑血管领域13个新药研发项目为例,检验优先级评价标准体系。利用模糊层次分析法计算出各项目的综合评分值,得出心脑血管领域项目的优先级排序。结论基于模糊层次分析的模型实现了项目优先级的量化评价,适用性好,计算结果稳定可靠。

Objective To evaluate the project priority in new drug research and project development to rationally allocate limited resources and make decisions according to the national policy,enterprise strategy and characteristics of new drug research and development projects.Methods By analyzing the influential factors in the development of new drug projects,we established multi-project priority evaluation criteria,used hierarchical analysis to determine the relationship among indicators,assigned a weight to each indicator,and set up a multilevel fuzzy priority evaluation model.Results Thirteen new drug research projects in the cardiovascular field were used as examples to the evaluate priority standard and calculate the overall rating of each project with fuzzy hierarchical analysis to determine the priority of projects.Conclusion The model based on fuzzy hierarchical analysis quantitatively evaluates project priority,which is stable and reliable.