基于贝叶斯网络的铁路“四电”工程质量安全风险研究

Research on Quality and Safety Risk of Railway Electric/Electronic Systems Engineering Based on Bayesian Network

为确定影响四电工程质量安全的关键性因素,降低安全风险、提高质量管理效率以及实现工程质量安全管控的精细化、准确化,基于贝叶斯网络模型,研究集通信、信号、电力以及牵引供电四种专业于一体的铁路"四电"工程质量安全风险管控体系。首先,从建设时期、参建单位和质量控制流程3个维度,构建铁路四电工程质量安全三维管理体系;然后,利用贝叶斯网络对实际工程安全质量影响因素进行风险识别和风险评估。结果表明:建设时期、参建单位和质量控制流程3个维度存在着影响铁路四电工程质量安全的57项风险因素,其中关键因素19项。为规避这些风险因素,需要科学安排施工工期、制定工期管理预案,严格把关自购物资采购环节,建立标准隐蔽工程记录体系,规范日常检查流程,强化人员专业素养,合理利用信息化技术,以保障铁路四电工程质量安全风险管控落到实处。

In order to determine the key factors affecting the quality and safety of the electric/electronic systems engineering, reduce safety risks, improve the efficiency of quality management, and realize the refinement and accuracy of project quality and safety control, based on Bayesian network model, this paper studies the quality and safety risk control system of railway electric/electronic systems engineering, which integrates communication, signal, electric power and traction power supply. Firstly, the three-dimensional quality and safety management system of railway electric/electronic systems engineering is constructed from three dimensions, namely, construction period, construction participant and quality control process. Then, Bayesian network is used to identify and evaluate the risk of the actual engineering safety and quality factors. Results show that there are 57 risk factors affecting the quality and safety of railway electric/electronic systems engineering in three dimensions: construction period, construction participant and quality control process,among which 19 are key factors. To avoid these risk factors, it is necessary to scientifically arrange the construction period, formulate the time limit for a project management plan, strictly control the procurement link of self-purchase materials, set up a standard concealed engineering record system, standardize the daily inspection process, strengthen the professional quality of personnel and make rational use of information technology, so as to ensure the implementation of the quality and safety risk control of railway electric/electronic systems engineering.