产业集聚、财政支持政策与区域实体经济增长

Industrial Agglomeration, Financial Support Policy and Regional Real Economic Growth

在国际经济回暖乏力、贸易战频发和新冠病毒疫情影响下,中国实体经济恢复与发展迫在眉睫,如何通过财政支持政策引导优势产业集聚,需要准确判断财政支持政策下产业集聚对实体经济的增长效应。基于财政支持政策下产业集聚对实体经济增长的影响机理,鉴于第一产业较强的资源约束性,使用中国1998—2017年的省际面板数据,建立经典面板模型和空间杜宾模型,对财政支持政策下第二、三产业集聚度的实体经济增长效应进行检验和估计。结果发现:在不考虑空间性和控制了交互变量和二次项变量等的前提下,产业集聚水平和公共财政支出都会显著促进区域内实体经济增长,且第三产业的促进作用大于第二产业;二、三产业集聚度与财政支持政策具有显著的交互作用,且财政支持政策通过第三产业作用于实体经济的影响更大;第三产业集聚与实体经济增长之间存在倒"U"关系。空间检验发现:产业集聚度基于邻接关系和地理距离存在负向的空间溢出,高集聚度地区存在较强的虹吸效应,而公共财政支出的空间溢出效应为正,有较强的示范效应。

Under the influence of weak international economic recovery, frequent trade wars and COVID-19 epidemic, the recovery and development of China real economy is imminent, and how to guide the agglomeration of advantageous industries through financial support policy needs to accurately judge the growth effect of industrial agglomeration on the real economy under financial support policy. Based on the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration on real economy growth under financial support policy and in view of the strong resource constraints of the first industry, this paper, by adopting China provincial panel data from 1998 to 2017, establishes the classic panel model and spatial Durbin model, tests and estimates the growth effect of the agglomeration degree of second and third industries on real economy under financial support policy. The results show that without considering the spatial characteristics and the controlled interactive variables and quadratic variables, the level of industrial agglomeration and public financial expenditure can both significantly promote regional real economic growth with the promoting effect of the third industry greater than that of the second industry;the agglomeration degree of the second and third industries has a significant interacting effect with the financial support policy, and financial support policy has a greater impact on the real economy through the third industry;and there is an inverted "U" relationship between the third industry agglomeration and the real economy growth. The spatial test shows that industrial agglomeration degree has a negative spatial spillover depending on adjacency relation and geographical distance with a strong siphon effect in areas of high agglomeration degree while the spatial spillover effect of public finance expenditure is positive with a strong demonstration effect.