劳动供给曲线与货币政策区域结构效应——基于东部地区11省市的实证分析

Labor Supply Curve and Regional Structure Effect of Monetary Policy--Empirical Analysis Based on 11 Provinces and Cities in the East Area

基于劳动力相对短缺和劳动力跨区流动的基本事实,将生产函数对货币政策效力的约束拓展为劳动供给曲线对货币政策区域结构效应的影响。在此基础上,以东部11个省市为例,通过绘制各地区“工资—失业率”曲线,建立TVP-SV-VAR模型检验劳动供给曲线的形态与中国货币政策区域结构效应的内在联系。结果表明,中国货币政策具有明显的区域结构效应,其效力与地区劳动供给曲线的斜率密切相关,具体表现为:拥有正斜率劳动供给曲线的地区,货币政策基本有效;拥有垂直劳动供给曲线的地区,货币政策趋于无效;劳动供给曲线向内平移的地区,货币政策效力可能为负。

Based on the facts of the relative shortage of labor and the movement of labor across regions,the restriction of production function on the effectiveness of monetary policy was expanded to the effect of the labor supply curve on the regional structural effect of monetary policy.Based on this,taking the 11 provinces and cites in the east as a sample,the relationship between the labor supply curve and the regional structural effects of China’s monetary policy is established by a TVP-SV-VAR model.The results show that:China’s monetary policy has a significant regional structural effect,and its effectiveness is closely related to the slope of the regional labor supply curve.In the areas with a positive slope labor supply curve,monetary policy is basically effective;in the regions with a vertical labor supply curve,monetary policy tends to be ineffective;in the regions where the labor supply curve shifts inward,monetary policy may be negative.