最低收购价下调对农户种粮积极性的影响研究——基于有调节的中介效应模型的实证分析

The Impact of Reducing the Minimum Purchase Price on Farmers’Enthusiasm for Growing Grain--An Empirical Analysis Based on Moderated Mediation Model

本文利用2018年全国小麦主产区的专项调研数据,构建并检验一个有调节的中介效应模型,以分析最低收购价下调对农户种粮积极性的影响及其作用机理。结果表明:粮食最低收购价下调作为政策改革信号,显著降低了农户的种粮积极性;价格预期是最低收购价下调与农户种粮积极性的中介变量,KHB方法分解得出中介效应占总效应的5.88%,最低收购价下调对种粮积极性的负向影响主要以直接效应为主;个体特征、家庭特征以及农业经营特征在中介效应的不同路径中发挥不同程度的调节作用。此外,户主年龄、耕地产权结构、商品化程度和农户对自然灾害的态度也在不同程度上影响种粮积极性。

This article uses the special survey data of provinces where are main producing areas to construct and test a moderated mediation effect model to analyze the impact of the minimum purchase price reduction on farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain and its mechanism of action.The results show that,the reduction of the minimum grain purchase price is regarded as a signal of policy reform which has significantly reduced the farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain;The price expectation is the mediating variable between the minimum purchase price reduction and the farmer’s enthusiasm for growing grain;the KHB method is decomposed to show that the mediation effect accounts for 5.88%of the total effect,the negative impact of the minimum purchase price reduction on grain enthusiasm is mainly based on the direct effects;individual characteristics,family characteristics and agricultural management characteristics play a significant moderating role in different paths of mediating effects.In addition,the age of the householder,the proportion of self-owned cultivated land,the proportion of wheat sales and natural disasters also affect farmers’enthusiasm for growing grain to varying degrees.