2005—2019年苏州市姑苏区肺结核病的流行特征和发病预测

Epidemic characteristics and incidence prediction of pulmonary tuberculosis in Gusu district of Suzhou city,2005-2019

目的分析2005—2019年苏州市姑苏区肺结核病的流行特征,预测下一年度发病情况。方法采用圆形分布法分析2005—2019年肺结核病的发病季节特征;用时间序列模型对2020年发病数进行定量预测。结果2005—2019年肺结核年均报告发病率为27.64/10万,年均死亡率为0.08/10万。2005—2019年累计报告病例数,男性高于女性,男女性别比为2.15∶1;20~59岁年龄段占总报告发病数的71.1%;家务和待业、工人、离退人员和民工所占构成比合计占比75.9%;发病存在集中趋势,高峰日为7月2号,高峰期为5月18日—8月16日。对2008—2019年数据做时间序列分析,系统自动拟合简单季节模型,预测2020年姑苏区肺结核疫情呈现稳中有降的发病趋势。结论姑苏区肺结核病发病呈下降趋势;防控的重点人群为男性、中青年、家务和待业、工人、离退人员和民工;简单季节预测模型拟合较好,可为肺结核病防控提供参考。

Objective To analyze the epidemic features of pulmonary tuberculosis in Gusu district of Suzhou city from 2005 to 2019,and to forecast its incidence in 2020.Methods Circular distribution method was used to analyze the seasonal characteristics of incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Suzhou city from 2005 to 2019.A time series model was employed to quantitatively predict the number of cases in 2020.Results The average annual reported incidence rate of pulmonary tuberculosis from 2005 to 2019 was 27.64/100,000,and the average annual reported mortality rate was 0.08/100,000.The cumulative number of reported cases was higher in males than in females,with a male-to-female sex ratio of 2.15∶1.The age group of 20-59 years accounted for 71.1%of the total number of reported cases.The total proportion of housekeepers and the unemployed,workers,retirees and migrant workers accounted for 75.9%of the total number of reported cases.Circular distribution analysis showed that the peak incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis was on July 2nd,and the epidemic period was from May 18th to August 16th.Time series analysis of data from 2008 to 2019 was performed,and the simple seasonal model was fitted automatically and revealed that the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis tended to steadily decrease in Gusu district in 2020.Conclusions The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in Gusu district showed a downward trend.Males,the young and middle-aged,housekeepers and the unemployed,workers,retirees and migrant workers are the key groups to prevent and control pulmonary tuberculosis.The simple seasonal model has good fitting performance,and can provide references for pulmonary tuberculosis prevention and control.