辽宁省土地利用生态安全评价

Evaluation of Land Use Ecological Security in Liaoning Province

依据土地生态压力-状态-响应(PSR)框架模型,选择经济密度、人均耕地面积、城市化水平、森林覆盖率、GDP增长率等因子建立评价体系,并对辽宁省2010-2019年土地生态安全状况及其未来9a变化趋势利用综合指数模型和灰色系统GM(1,1)模型评价预测。结果表明:辽宁省2010-2019年土地生态总体处于临界安全状态,生态安全综合指数波动变化于0.42-0.48;2020-2028年生态安全值不断减小,土地生态环境、系统结构、服务功能发生破坏、变化和退化,脆弱的生态环境受干扰后很容易发生恶化,虽然能够基本维持其功能,但对区域发展和生态保护产生明显的制约。研究成果可为管理规划生态安全以及生态环境的改善提供科学指导。

According to the ecological pressure-state-response(PSR)framework model of the land,the evaluation system is established by selecting economic density,urbanization level of per capita cultivated land area,forest coverage rate,GDP growth rate and other factors,meanwhile,the comprehensive index model and the grey system GM(1,1)model were used to evaluate and predict the land ecological security status and future trend in Liaoning Province in 9 years between 2010 and 2019.The results show that from 2010 to 2019,the land ecology of Liaoning Province was general in a critical state of safety,and the comprehensive index of ecological security fluctuated within the range of 0.42-0.48;the ecological security value will continue to decrease,and the service function of the land ecological environment system structure will be damaged,changed and degraded,and the fragile ecological environment will easily deteriorate after being disturbed,although it can basically maintain its function from 2020 to 2028,however,there are obvious constraints on regional development and ecological protection.The research results can provide scientific guidance for the management and planning of ecological security and the improvement of ecological environment.