中长期高速铁路网客流OD及通道运量预测方法

Prediction method of high-speed rail passenger OD flow and traffic volume in medium and long-term high-speed railway network plan

根据《中长期铁路网规划》,未来我国高速铁路网络覆盖将进一步扩大,如何明确各个高铁规划项目的功能定位与线路等级和标准,需对其运量水平及所承担的客流OD结构进行有效预测.对此,通过分析未来全方式客运需求增长比例、高速铁路全面成网后各种交通方式客流承担比例变化、高铁线路开通对于旅客出行需求的诱发作用等因素,完成中长期高速铁路客流OD的合理预测;进而以此为基础,考虑高速铁路网中OD客流不同走行径路的出行时间、费用、换乘、区段输送能力等影响因素,基于Logit模型构建了客流分配模型,并采用迭代加权法进行求解.最后,通过针对2030年长三角地区高速铁路运量水平及客流结构的案例分析,验证了本文方法的有效性,计算结论可为规划设计方案提供依据.

According to Medium and Long-Term Railway Network Plan,the coverage of China’s high-speed railway network will be further expanded in the future.Therefore,to define the functional localization,line grade and construction standard of each high-speed rail line,it is required to conduct effective prediction on the passenger transport volume and the OD structure of them.In this regard,the future high-speed railway passenger OD flows under medium and long term railway network plan are predicted by analyzing the future growth ratio of all-mode passenger transport demand,weighing the proportion changes of passenger traffic in different modes with the completion of planned high-speed rail lines and studying the effect of high-speed rail line opening on increasing passenger travel demand.Then,on the basis of the predicted OD flows,considering the factors such as travel time,cost,transfer and period traffic capacity of various OD routes in high-speed railway network,a passenger flow assignment model is built using the Logit model.Moreover,the Method of Successive Average(MSA)is adopted to solve it.Finally,taking the traffic capacity and passenger flow structure of the high-speed railway in Yangtze River Delta Region as an example,the proposed method is validated effective,and the calculation results could provide reference for high-speed railway planning and designing.