通货膨胀结构性分化与货币政策反应机制

Inflation Structural Divergence and Monetary Policy Response Mechanism

本文将2001-2019年中国通货膨胀出现的结构性分化特征划分为核心-非核心和消费-非消费两个层次,研究货币政策对具有分化特征的不同通货膨胀指标的反应机制。价格型和数量型货币政策反应方程估计和模型竞争检验结果表明,对于消费领域内部的核心-非核心通货膨胀率分化,货币政策仅对核心(非食品)消费品通货膨胀率反应,对非核心(食品)类消费品通胀率不反应;对于消费类-非消费类通货膨胀率之间的分化,价格型目标仅对消费类通货膨胀率做出反应,数量型目标同时兼顾消费类和非消费类通货膨胀率。

This paper documents the structural divergence characteristics presented by inflation in China during the 2001-2019 period and divides them into two levels—core/non-core and consumption/non-consumption—then investigating the monetary policy response to different inflation indicators with divergent characteristics.Price-based and quantity-based monetary policy response function estimation and model competition test results show that:(i)as core and non-core inflation diverge in the consumer sector,monetary policy only responds to the core(non-food)consumer product inflation rate;and(ii)as consumer and non-consumer inflation rates diverge,price-based targets only respond to the consumer inflation rate,while quantity-based targets react to both consumer and non-consumer inflation rates.