中国非常规天然气开发现状及前景思考

Current Situation and Prospect of Unconventional Gas Development in China

从分析我国非常规天然气开发现状入手,以当前非常规天然气资源开发潜力为基础,从发展机遇及面临挑战切入,多情景预判未来发展前景,并对未来发展提出建议。总的观点:(1)中国非常规天然气资源总体丰富,具备建成年产1500×10^8 m^3以上规模的资源潜力。(2)中情景条件下,初步预判2030年全国非常规天然气产量1000×10^8 m^3,其中致密气产量400×10^8 m^3、煤层气产量200×10^8 m^3和页岩气产量400×10^8 m^3;2050年非常规天然气产量1200×10^8 m^3,其中致密气产量300×10^8 m^3、煤层气产量300×10^8 m^3、页岩气产量600×10^8 m^3。(3)非常规天然气发展面临需求持续快速增长、资源和技术条件成熟、政策环境完善3项发展机遇,但同时也存在资源禀赋相对较差、开采难度更大、部分资源位于生态保护红线以内等3项挑战。

Analyzing the development status of unconventional natural gas in China,studying the current development potential of unconventional gas resources,the development opportunities and challenges were summarized.The multi-scenario forecast and suggestions of future were put forward.It is generally believed that:(1)China is generally rich in unconventional natural gas resources,and has the resource potential of building an annual capacity of 1500×10^8 m^3 or more.(2)Under the medium scenario,the unconventional natural gas production in 2030 is estimated to be 1000×10^8 m^3,including 400×10^8 m^3 of tight gas,200×10^8 m^3 of coal bed methane and 400×10^8 m^3 of shale gas.In 2050,unconventional natural gas production is 1200×10^8 m^3,including tight gas 300×10^8 m^3,coal bed methane 300×10^8 m^3 and shale gas 600×10^8 m^3.(3)The development of unconventional gas is confronted with three development opportunities,including sustained and rapid growth of demand,mature resources and technological conditions,and improved policy environment.However,there are also three challenges,such as relatively poor resource endowment,greater difficulty in exploitation,and partial resources within the red line of ecological protection.