地震灾害下海岛综合能源系统韧性评估方法研究

Evaluating Resilience of Island Integrated Energy Systems With Earthquake

台风、地震等极端自然灾害下,海岛综合能源系统元件故障率将大幅度升高,高阶故障状态的数量将急剧增加,严重威胁到海岛能源供应的安全性和可靠性。为评估海岛综合能源系统遭受极端自然灾害后的供能恢复能力,首先建立海岛综合能源系统及其极端自然灾害下各元件故障率的数学模型;然后,从鲁棒性、快速性和冗余性3个方面构建海岛综合能源系统的韧性评估指标,根据评估结果确定系统的薄弱环节,提出相应的改进措施;最后,通过修改的巴厘岛综合能源系统对所提韧性评估指标进行分析、验证。结果表明,所提海岛综合能源系统韧性评估指标能够全面分析和评估极端自然灾害下海岛综合能源系统的供能能力和灾害后的供能恢复能力,并根据结果筛选海岛综合能源系统的薄弱环节,进行有针对性的韧性改善和提升。

Extreme natural hazards such as typhoon and earthquake cause island integrated energy systems(IIES)with significant probability of damage and high order contingency states.This seriously threatens the security and reliability of island energy supply.To evaluate the resilience of the IIES under the extreme natural hazards,a resilience evaluation approach was proposed in this paper.The models of IIES and the failure rates of components for the IIES were formulated.Then,the resilience of IIES with robustness,rapidity and redundancy was defined.Through the defined IIES resilience,the robustness,rapidity and redundancy indexes of IIES were defined and used to evaluate the resilience of the IIES.According to the evaluated result,the critical parts of the IIES infrastructures,which seriously threatens the security of island energy supply under the extreme natural hazards,were distinguished,and the corresponding strategy was proposed to improve the resilience of the distinguished critical infrastructures.Finally,the resilience evaluation approach for the IIES was tested and demonstrated by the modified Barry Island test case.The results illustrate that the proposed resilience indexes can be used to accurately evaluate the resilience of IIES and reveal the underlying critical infrastructures which may significantly threaten the island energy supply under the extreme natural hazards.