省际预算支出结构的差异及其主要来源

The Differences and Main Sources of Inter-Provincial Budget Expenditure Structure

本文从直观表现和动态变化两个角度,发现我国不同省级政府的预算支出结构存在明显且具有阶段性规律的系统差异。基于这一差异的典型事实,本文进一步依据相关财政理论和已有文献,采用基于回归方程的分解法从地方财政状况、经济状况、官员和支出目标特征四个维度对差异展开综合分解,以期探究我国省际预算支出结构差异的主要来源。研究发现,反映地方财政状况的支出分权和地方财力一直是我国省际预算支出结构差异的主要来源;同时在特定时期,反映地方经济状况的城市化、市场化,体现支出目标特征的人口密度、人均受教育年限以及地方官员因素也是差异的重要来源。优化我国地方政府财政支出结构的一个可行之策是实现支出分权和地方财力两个持续性来源稳中有变;城市化、市场化等阶段性来源灵活调整。

From the two perspectives of intuitive expression and dynamic change,this paper finds obvious differences in the budget expenditure structure of different provincial governments in China.In order to explore the main sources of the differences in the inter-provincial budget expenditure structure in China,based on the typical facts of the above differences and the conclusions of relevant public financial theory and the existing literature,this paper,based on regression equation,decomposes the differences from four dimensions namely the local financial situation,the local economic situation,the characteristics of officials and expenditure targets.The main findings are as follows:the expenditure decentralization and local financial resources reflecting the local financial situation have been the main sources of the differences in the inter-provincial budget expenditure structure.In a specific period,the main sources of the differences also include the urbanization and marketization which reflect the local economic situation,as well as the population density and the years of education per capita which reflect the characteristics of expenditure targets,and the characteristics of officials.A feasible strategy to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure in China is to make steady changes to the expenditure decentralization and local financial resources and flexible adjustments to urbanization and marketization.