武汉市主城区住宅价格的时空分异与演变模式

Spatial & Temporal Variation and Evolution Patterns of Residential Prices in Main Urban Areas of Wuhan City

本文以武汉市三环以内的住宅小区的项目点为研究对象,搜集了2012—2018年1326个数据点,通过计算变异系数和核密度函数值分析住宅价格总体分异情况和演变趋势,使用核密度分析和克里金插值法探索住宅价格时间分异格局,进一步探索住宅价格的演变模式和时空分异的驱动机制。结果表明:第一,武汉市主城区住宅价格大幅度增长,相对差异适中,价格异质性波动比较平稳,内部分异增强,由"高耸式"分布转变为"低缓式"分布。第二,武汉市主城区住宅价格围绕商业活动中心呈多中心向外递减,商业经济活动、轨道交通和优质的自然环境会对住宅价格产生正向作用,而城市战略布局则是住宅价格空间分异的主导力量。第三,住宅价格时空分异的驱动力是商业经济活动的发展、轨道交通的建设、优质自然环境的存在和多元住宅类型的兴建。

This paper has collected 1326 data points from 2012 to 2018,taking the project points within the third ring of Wuhan city as the research object,and analyzed the overall differentiation and evolution trend of residential price by calculating the coefficient of variation and the nuclear density function. Using nu-clear density analysis and kriegin interpolation to explore the spatial & temporal division pattern of hous-ing prices,further explore the evolution of housing prices and the driving mechanism of time and space dif-ferentiation. The results show that:First,Residential prices in the main urban areas of Wuhan city have increased significantly.The relative differences are moderate,the price heterogeneity fluctuations are rela-tively stable,and the internal differences have increased,and the "towering" distribution has changed to the "low-slow" distribution.Second,The residential prices in the main urban area of Wuhan are decreasing outwards around the commercial activity centers. Commercial economic activities,rail transit,and high-quality natu-ral environment will have a positive effect on residential prices,and the urban strategic layout is the domi-nant force for the division of residential price space.Third,The driving force of the spatial and temporal differentiation of residential prices is the development of commercial economic activities,the construc-tion of rail transit,the existence of a high-quality natural environment,and the construction of multiple residential types.