离岸中资美元债:特征事实、发展动力与潜在风险

China’s Offshore Dollar Bonds:Characteristics,Development Momentum and Potential Risks

近年来中资美元债市场的发行规模和企业数量迅速扩张,这一方面拓宽了企业的融资渠道,另一方面也增加了企业的潜在财务风险。本文研究发现,不同类型企业债务增长的驱动因素差异较大。一般企业发债主要受市场因素驱动,汇率走势和中美利率差异是其中最重要的影响因素。房地产企业发债的主要目的是规避境内监管,即企业在境内融资受限的情况下主动寻求境外融资来源。地方政府融资平台的发债行为则紧跟监管步调,境内外发债趋势在大部分时间内保持一致。从风险层面来看,汇率风险是所有美元债发行主体共同面临的风险,政策转向和集中违约风险则主要集中于房地产部门。

China’s offshore bond market has expanded remarkably in recent years in terms of both volume of US dollar-denominated bond issuance and numbers of issuing companies.On the one hand,offshore bond issuance is an important channel of direct financing for Chinese enterprises.On the other hand,financial risk might increase along with debt increases.We find that different types of corporations issue bonds based on quite different driving factors.For corporations except real estate companies and local government financial vehicles,the amount of issuance increases with the widen interest rate spread between China and United States and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate.Real estate companies seek overseas financing to hedge the effect of domestic tightened regulatory restrictions.Local government financial vehicles,meanwhile,have strictly followed the domestic regulatory rules.The tightening of offshore bond issuance regulation leads to decreasing overseas financing.For all the US dollar debt issuing entities,exchange rate risk is a common risk.For real estate corporations,the risk mainly concentrates in default and policy risks.