社保费阶段性减免政策的宏观经济效应

The Macroeconomic Effect of the Policy of Phased Social Insurance Premiums Relief and Exemption

2020年初,国家为应对疫情推出企业社保费阶段性减免政策。基于新凯恩斯DGE和DSGE理论中国化改进,构建模拟分析框架,检验该政策的宏观经济效应。结果表明:其一,阶段性社保费减免政策的疫情应对是精准有效的,政策对经济基本面主要变量产生较强的短期刺激及长期趋势正向调整效应。同时该政策与财政支出扩张和利率下降救助政策总体上存在一定趋同效应;其二,目前我国经济基本面难以支持社保费的长期减免,基于趋势性与稳定性分析,对阶段性社保费减免政策的长期扩展应持谨慎态度。

At the beginning of 2020,the government launched the policy of enterprise social insurance premium reduction and exemption in response to the COVID-19 epidemic situation.Based on the new Keynes DGE and SGE theories,we construct a simulation analysis framework to test the macroeconomic effect of the policy.The results show that:first,the periodic social security fee relief policy is pointed and effective,and the policy has a strong short-term stimulus and long-term positive trend adjustment effect on the main variables of economic fundamentals.At the same time,the policy has a convergence effect with the financial expenditure expansion and interest rate decline relief policy.Secondly,it is difficult for China s economic fundamentals to support the long-term reduction and exemption of social security fees.Based on the analysis of the trend and stability,we should be cautious about the long-term expansion of the policy.