流动人口失业发生风险与对策

Risk and Countermeasures of Floating Population Unemployment

使用2017年流动人口动态监测数据,基于“推-拉理论”,采用二元logistic模型,分析了影响我国流动人口失业的各项因素。研究发现,2017年我国流动人口失业率为2.3%;流动人口失业受其个人特征以及流入地、流出地和流动过程因素影响并且存在明显的群体差异,女性、低学历者、年龄较大者、西部流出者、家中没有耕地者、省内流动者、流入中小城市者的失业风险更高。政府部门应重视流动人口失业问题,加快中西部建设,促进中小城市发展,引导人口合理有序流动,并按照实际情况加强对流动人口的就业指导和就业培训。流入地应当保障流动人口权益,完善劳动力市场,进一步降低流动人口失业风险。

Using the data of the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017,based on the push-pull theory model and binary Logistic model,the factors affecting the unemployment probability of floating population in China are analyzed.The study shows that:the unemployment rate of the floating population in 2017 was 2.3%;the unemployment probability of floating population is affected by personal characteristics and the factors of inflow places,outflow places and flow processes,and there are obvious group differences;women,those with low education background,the older,those from the west,those with no cultivated land,those who move within the province,and those who flow into small and medium-sized cities have higher unemployment risk.Government departments should pay attention to the unemployment problem of floating population,accelerate the construction of central and western regions,promote the development of small and medium-sized cities,guide the rational and orderly flow of population and strengthen employment guidance and training for floating population according to the actual situation.The inflow places should guarantee the rights and interests of the floating population,improve the labor market and further reduce the unemployment risk of the floating population.