1956—2018年中国降水特征的时空分布规律研究

Study on the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation characteristics in China from 1956 to 2018

基于中国2424个气象站点1956—2018年逐日降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势性分析法、Pettitt突变分析法和小波分析法对全国及分区域的降水量演变特征进行分析,研究了全国及区域上的多种降水演变特征的时空分布规律。研究结果表明,从全国尺度上来看:1956—2018年中国降水量呈现不显著的增加趋势,在整个系列年中无显著突变点,且仅存在以20 a为周期的一级主周期。从区域尺度上来看:(1)全国大部分区域降水量无显著的趋势性变化和突变特征,其中华南地区、华中大部、华东大部、黑龙江省以及四川省和宁夏回族自治区等地均呈现不显著的增加趋势,而华北地区和东北地区的吉林省、辽宁省,以及西南地区的云南省和贵州省等少部分地区降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势,大部分区域第一主周期为20 a左右(±2 a);(2)我国西北西部地区和西藏自治区等部分区域的降水量存在显著的增加趋势,均在80年代和90年代发生显著突变,而西北西部地区的第一主周期基本为6 a左右(±2 a),西藏地区第一主周期基本为10 a左右。

Based on daily precipitation data of 2424 weather stations during 1956—2018 in China,the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation evolution characteristics in the whole China and its regions are analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall test,Pettitt test and Wavelet analysis.The results indicate that:from the national scale,precipitation in China shows an insignificant increase trend,insignificant change point and has a period of 20 a from 1956 to 2018.From the regional scale:(1)Precipitation in most regions of China shows insignificant trend and insignificant change point.Precipitation in South China,Central China,East China,Heilongjiang Province,Sichuan Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region shows insignificant increase.Precipitation in North China,Jilin Province,Liaoning Province,Yunnan Province,Guizhou Province shows insignificant decrease.And the first main period in most regions of China is about 20 a(±2 a).(2)There is a significant increasing trend of precipitation in Western Northwest China and Tibet Autonomous Region,and has significant change point in the 1980s and 1990s.The period of Western Northwest China is about 6a(±2 a).The period of Tibet Autonomous Region is about 10 a(±2 a).