城市内涝灾害致灾机理分析与研究展望

Analysis on the Formation Mechanism of Urban Waterlogging Disaster and Its Research Prospect

城市内涝灾害成为制约我国城市可持续发展与城市化水平提升的现实难题之一,而致灾机理分析是有效治理和应对灾害的基础和前提。对城市内涝灾害系统各组成要素进行探讨,以突发事件流程性机理为理论基础,从酝酿、发生、发展及成灾四个阶段系统分析了城市内涝灾害的致灾机理,以期为我国城市内涝灾害治理提供依据和参考,最后从变化环境的影响机理、创新风险评估理论与方法、加强实证研究和灾害防治四个方面,对城市内涝灾害未来的研究重点进行了展望。

Urban waterlogging disaster has become one of the practical problems that restrict the sustainable development and urbanization level in China,and the effective governance and handling of such kind of disasters should be based on the analysis of its formation mechanism.In this paper,we discussed the elements of urban waterlogging disaster system firstly.Then,based on the emergency process theory,we systematically analyzed the formation mechanism of urban waterlogging disaster from the four stages of gestation,occurrence,development and disaster-causing of the urban waterlogging disaster,aiming to provide a basis and reference for solving urban waterlogging disasters in China.Finally,we proposed the prospective research focuses of urban waterlogging disaster from the following four aspects:the influence mechanism of changing environment,the theory and method of innovative risk assessment,the enhancement of empirical research,and the prevention and control of disasters.