国家财政扶贫资金是“祝福”还是“诅咒”?--对国家扶贫工作重点县的实证分析

Is the Poverty Alleviation Funds A Bless or A Curse?:An Empirical Analysis of State Poverty Counties in China

财政补贴是我国扶贫的重要方式之一,评估财政扶贫资金使用效果,可以提升财政扶贫的效率。采用全国518个国家级贫困县的面板数据,通过门槛面板回归,研究了2002—2015年国家扶贫财政补贴对促进地方经济发展的作用,提出并检验了财政扶贫补贴的门槛效应。结果发现:全国范围内国家级贫困县的人均补贴低于1291元时,可以显著促进地方经济发展,超过之后转变为显著的抑制作用,当人均补贴超过4469元后,又转变为显著促进作用。西部地区的国家级贫困县对补贴较为敏感,较少的补贴就可以起到良好的促进作用,东部地区的国家级贫困县具有较高的补贴门槛,扶贫财政补贴对中部地区发展的促进作用则呈现倒“U”型。

Poverty alleviation by policy is an important way to alleviate poverty and get rid of poverty.However,the effect of poverty alleviation by policy is lacking in evaluating,so that the original intention of the poverty alleviation funds and the actual local effect may not be consistent.Using panel data of 518 state poverty counties in China from 2002 to 2015,this paper studies the role of government financial subsidies to the economic development potential of state poverty counties by means of threshold panel regression method,puts forward and tests the threshold effect.For all the state poverty counties in China,when the government financial subsidy per capita is less than 1291 yuan,it plays a significant role in promoting the local economic development.After crossing this threshold,it becomes a significant inhibitory effect.When exceeding 4469 yuan per capita,financial subsidies will again help stimulate the economic growth potential of poor counties.In addition,this paper further separately tests the effect of the state poverty counties in the central,western and eastern regions,and finds that the appropriate financial subsidy plays a more obvious role in the state poverty counties in the central region,while for the state poverty counties in the western and eastern regions,the larger subsidy plays a more effective hematopoietic role,which to some extent proves the effect of government’s poverty-alleviation funds has regional differences and provides suggestions for poverty alleviation policies.