1990年以来苏州城市化发展过程及其驱动机制研究

Study on the Process of Urbanization Development and Its Driving Mechanism in Suzhou Since 1990

城市化发展水平是衡量一个地区经济社会发展程度的重要指标,研究城市化发展过程及其内在机理对建设新型城镇化具有重要的参考意义.本文以发达地区苏州市为例,从城市化四大子系统人口、土地、经济及社会构建了一级指标,运用熵值法对苏州的城市化发展过程进行阶段划分,同时采用主成分分析法对影响因子进行深入研究.研究结果表明:①1990年以来苏州城市化发展过程可划分为三个阶段:阶段Ⅰ为1990-1999年,属于城市化初始发展阶段,该时期城市化驱动力主要以内生动力为主;阶段Ⅱ为2000—2007年,属于城市化快速发展阶段,城市化驱动力主要以外资驱动为主;阶段Ⅲ为2008-2015年,城市化发展出现稳步发展趋势,以城市化的产业升级为主要特征.②影响苏州城市化发展动力因子是多元化的,主要受到经济发展、外资驱动及产业升级的影响,这种影响与苏州不同发展阶段的经济社会发展情形具有一致性.

Urbanization development level is an important indicator to measure the degree of economic and social development in a region.It is of great significance to study the process of urbanization and its internal mechanism to construct new urbanization.Taking the developed city of Suzhou as an example,this paper constructs the comprehensive first-level indicators from the four aspects of population urbanization,land urbanization,economic urbanization and social urbanization to divide urbanization development process using entropy method of Suzhou,and adopts principal component analysis method to explore dynamic mechanism.The results show that:firstly,the whole process could be divided into three sections since 1990 in Suzhou:StageⅠis from 1990 to 1999 and belongs to the initial development.During this period,the driving force was mainly endogenous power.StageⅡis from 2000 to 2007 and belongs to the rapid development,which is mainly driven by foreign capital.StageⅢis from 2008 to 2015,the urbanization development shows a steady growth trend,characterized by industrial upgrading.Secondly,the driving factors affecting the development of urbanization in Suzhou are diversified,mainly due to economic development,foreign investment and industrial upgrading.This impact is consistent with the economic and social development of different development stages in Suzhou.