战略起点视角下山东省乡村振兴效果评价及影响因素研究

Study on the effect evaluation and influencing factors of rural revitalization in Shandong Province from the perspective of strategic starting point

基于乡村振兴战略起点视角,采用扎根理论的逆向归纳法,构建由5项一级指标、16项二级指标、31项三级指标构成的山东省乡村振兴评价指标体系。在此基础上,运用模糊层次分析法与熵权法相结合的复合权重确定法以及聚类分析法对山东省2015-2018年的数据资料进行分析。研究发现,从振兴指数和排序上看,胶东半岛城市、济南等优势明显,同时可将乡村振兴效果分为四个层次;乡村振兴效果在空间分布上呈现由沿海地区至鲁中地区向鲁西南地区优势递减的趋势;经济发展水平、农业发展水平、城镇化水平以及地方财政实力是乡村振兴的主要影响因素。对此,可在高度明确“五位一体”的振兴指向、探索特色化乡村振兴模式以及实施差异化乡村振兴举措等方面构筑应对策略。

Based on the perspective of the starting point of the rural revitalization strategy,the reverse induction method of grounded theory is adopted to construct the evaluation index system of rural revitalization in Shandong Province,which consists of 5 first-level indicators,16 second-level indicators and 31 third-level indicators.On this basis,the composite weight determination method combined with fuzzy AHP,entropy weight method and cluster analysis method were used to analyze the data of Shandong Province from 2015-2018 before the implementation of rural strategy.The results show that the Jiaodong Peninsula cities and Jinan have obvious advantages in terms of the score and ranking of the rural revitalization evaluation index,and the rural revitalization effect can be divided into four levels;the spatial distribution of the effect of rural revitalization showed a trend of decreasing advantage from coastal areas to central Shandong to southwest Shandong;the level of economic development,agricultural development,urbanization and local financial strength are the main factors effecting rural revitalization.In this regard,the countermeasures can be constructed in such aspects as highly clear“fivein-one”revitalization direction,characteristic rural revitalization mode and differentiated rural revitalization measures.