基于拟合改进的径流灰色预测模型研究

Research on Runoff Grey Prediction Based of Improved Fitting

经典灰色模型可用于水文径流预测,但其预测精度较差。为了提高模型精度,基于经典灰色理论,对累加后的数据进行精度更高的多项式拟合,建立基于拟合改进的径流灰色预测模型。该模型简单易行,且计算精度和效率较高。通过对三门峡水库的入库径流资料进行经典和拟合改进灰色预测,表明拟合改进灰色预测模型可有效地对径流进行预测,预测精度较经典灰色模型有较大提高。

Classical grey model can be used into hydrologic runoff prediction,but has bad prediction accuracy.Based on the classical grey theory,this paper utilized polynomial fitting to higher precision fit cumulative data and built improved runoff grey prediction model.This mod⁃el could be easily used and realized by program,and also had high calculation accuracy and efficiency.By predicting inflow runoff of Sanme⁃nxia Reservoir through classical and improved grey prediction,it shows that the latter method can effectively predict runoff and has improved calculation accuracy.