基于复杂网络的建材供应链金融风险传播与防范研究

Research on Risk Propagation and Prevention of Building Materials Supply Chain Finance Based on Complex Network

为了评估企业违约风险传播对建材供应链金融发展的影响,文章以基于平台的建材供应链金融为研究对象,以供应链成员间的合作程度为依据,将建材供应链网络转化为无向加权的复杂网络,并将网络节点的度和边的权重作为影响违约风险传播速度和传播范围的主要因素,构建了基于SI病毒传播模型理论的建材供应链金融违约风险传播模型。以此模型进行仿真分析,对建材供应链金融网络的违约风险传播与防控进行研究。通过案例研究发现,企业自身的抗风险能力和网络中违约企业的数量对风险传播的影响较大,平台和企业都应制定风险防范措施来应对建材供应链金融违约风险的产生和传播。

In order to evaluate the impact of corporate default risk propagation on the financial development of building materials supply chain,this paper takes platform-based building materials supply chain finance as the research object,studies the cooperation level among supply chain members,converts building materials supply chain network into undirected weighted complex network,and considers the degree of network nodes and edge weights as the influencing factors of the range and speed of default risk propagation.Then the paper establishes the building materials supply chain finance default risk propagation model based on the SI virus propagation model.This model is used for simulation analysis to study the spread and prevention of default risk in the financial network of building materials supply chain.Through the case study,it is found that the enterprise s risk resistance capacity and the number of defaulters in the network have a great impact on the risk propagation,so both the platform and the enterprise should formulate risk prevention measures to deal with the generation and dissemination of financial default risks in the building materials supply chain.