晚婚还是不婚:婚姻传统与个人选择

Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone?Marriage Tradition and Personal Choice

中国的初婚年龄不断推迟,但终身未婚率目前仍然很低,具有晚婚普婚的特点,与欧洲婚姻模式中终身未婚率高的特点明显不同。中国社会重视家庭中的代际义务关系,相关社会政策尽力维护婚姻收益的专属性和排他性,这些都强化了婚姻价值,有利于维系普婚模式。但现代社会中,社会流动加剧,人们的价值观更加多元,特别是消费主义思想对年轻人影响很大,对传统婚姻、家庭、生育观念造成较大冲击,影响到人们对生活方式的选择,这导致人们做出不婚选择的风险加大。随着经济进入减速转型时期,个人在婚姻市场找到合意配偶的难度加大,更有可能选择不婚。分析预测中国婚姻模式的变化趋势,必须理解个人婚姻决策的过程,特别是普婚模式和不婚模式下决策的差异。

Age at first marriage in China has been greatly delayed,but the proportion of population who stay lifetime single is still at a very low level,which is significantly different from the pattern of Euro⁃pean marriage.The Chinese society attaches importance to the intergenerational obligation relationship in the family,and the social policies do their best to maintain the specific and exclusive gain from mar⁃riage,which strengthen the marriage value and help to maintain the universal marriage.However,in modern societies with intensive social mobility,people's values become more diverse.Conflict between consumerism culture and traditional concepts of marriage,family,and fertility affects people's choice of life style,which increases the risk of making non⁃marriage choices.In a period of economic slowdown and transformation,it is more difficult for individuals to find a suitable spouse in the marriage market,and thus more likely to choose not to marry.To analyze and predict the trend of marriage pattern in China,we must understand the process of individual marriage decision,especially the difference between universal marriage pattern and non⁃universal marriage pattern.