摘要
采用全概率方法建立非电传爆系统可靠度与传爆环节可靠度的不确定性传递模型,将应用广泛的Sobol全局灵敏度指标推广到非电传爆系统,并采用发展成熟的数值模拟法(Monte Carlo,MC)与单层数值模拟法(Single Monte Carlo,SMC)对指标进行求解,得到各传爆环节可靠度的重要性排序。根据所得重要性排序,即可有针对性地逐步提高重要传爆环节的可靠度以达到提高系统可靠度的目的。所提指标及方法应用到某非电传爆系统中,证实了其有效性及合理性。
Probability formula method is applied to construct the uncertainty propagation model between reliability of the non-electric detonation transfer system and reliability of intermediate links.Widely used Sobol’s global sensitivity index is extended to the non-electric detonation transfer system,then Monte Carlo(MC)and Single Monte Carlo(SMC)methods are introduced to obtain the importance rank of the inputs,i.e.reliability of intermediate links.Thus researchers can gradually improve the system reliability according to the importance rank.Effectiveness and rationality of the proposed index and method are finally proved by the example.
作者
程蕾
王晓鹏
夏艳
王宇锐
范新中
Cheng Lei;Wang Xiao-peng;Xia Yan;Wang Yu-rui;Fan Xin-zhong(China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing,100076)
出处
《导弹与航天运载技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期25-31,共7页
Missiles and Space Vehicles
关键词
非电传爆系统
全概率方法
Sobol全局灵敏度指标
数值模拟
重要性排序
non-electric detonation transfer system
probability formula method
Sobol’s global sensitivity index
Monte Carlo
importance rank