云南省农村剩余劳动力转移对二、三产业发展的影响研究

The Influence of the Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor Force on the Development of Industrial Economy in Yunnan Province

聚焦2007年—2017年十年间云南省5个代表性地州市及8个自治州宏观数据,构建多元线性回归模型以深刻探究云南省农村剩余劳动力转移的影响因素。结果显示:云南省农村剩余劳动力转移进程与薪酬水平、人口自然增长率呈正相关;与受教育程度及人均耕地面积呈负相关。面对劳动力城乡间流动对云南省劳动力资源配置的强优化作用,第二产业仍然是吸引云南省农村转移劳动力的重要力量。依此提出要将建立农民社会福利制度及健全农民薪酬制度落到实处的新要求,以提高城乡资源流动程度。同时优化升级云南省第三产业结构,带动更多转移劳动力就业人口进入第三产业。

This paper focuses on the macro data of five representative prefectures and eight autonomous prefectures in Yunnan Province from 2007 to 2017,and constructs a multiple linear regression model to deeply explore the influencing factors of rural surplus labor transfer in Yunnan Province.The results show that the transfer process of rural surplus labor force in Yunnan Province is positively correlated with salary level and natural growth rate of population,and negatively correlated with education level and per capital cultivated land area.In the face of the strong optimization of labor resource allocation caused by the flow of labor between cities and villages,the secondary industry is still an important force to attract rural migrant labor in Yunnan Province.In order to improve the flow of resources in urban and rural areas,it is necessary to implement the new requirements of establishing the social welfare system of farmers and improving the compensation system of farmers.At the same time,we will optimize and upgrade the tertiary industry structure of Yunnan Province,so as to drive more migrant workers to enter the tertiary industry.