能源结构、生态环境与经济发展——门槛效应与异质性分析

Energy Structure,Ecological Environment and Economic Development:Analysis of Threshold Effect and Heterogeneity

基于能源结构、生态环境对经济发展的影响机制分析,以2003—2017年中国30个省份面板数据为研究对象,利用门槛回归方法探讨其间的非线性关系并引入虚拟变量进行稳健性检验。结果表明:能源结构、生态环境与经济发展之间存在显著稳健的双门槛效应;两者强度的提高均对经济发展产生制约作用,且前者影响系数始终为负,生态环境反之;中国经济的发展伴随着能源结构的优化调整和生态环境的治理保护,各变量跨越不同门槛值的省份呈现出明显的地域分布特征;人力资本、对外开放、信息化以及技术创新等新兴要素是经济发展的重要驱动力。

Based on the influence mechanism of energy structure and ecological environment on economic development,taking the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017 as research objects,this paper uses threshold regression method to discuss the threshold relationship between them,and dummy variables are introduced for robustness test.The main conclusions are as follows:There is a significant and stable double threshold effect among energy structure,ecological environment and economic development,and the improvement of the former two have a restrictive impact on the later,the coefficient of energy structure is negative,while the ecological environment is reversed;With the optimization of energy structure and the protection of ecological environment,the provinces in different thresholds display obvious geographical distribution characteristics;Human capital,opening up,informationization and technological innovation are the vital driving factors of economic development.