中俄美关系与国际结构:从多极到两极?

China-Russia-US Relations and International Structure:From Multipolarity to Bipolarity?

冷战结束初期国际结构的主旋律是单极论,而后多极论压倒了单极论,但近年来两极论的兴起又对多极化提出了挑战。两极是指中美,其基本指标是经济总量。但从综合指标的角度看,中国还有明显的弱项,两极论还得不到一致认同。现今国际结构的独特现象是,在主观认识和客观现实中,两极和多极共同存在,其关系可描述为多极框架中的两极结构,或是两极占突出地位的多极结构。这是现实国际结构复杂性和矛盾性的反映。这种状态在未来很长一个时期会继续保持,但趋势是两极结构特征向强。在成为两极之一的情况下,中国应以多边主义为总体理论和概念,而不应再使用多极化概念。多边主义不与任何特定的国际结构挂钩,使中国不受自身地位变化的影响,并使中国外交理论可以对应各种可能的国际结构形态,还有助于保持中俄国际合作的理论基础。

Unipolarism has set the theme of the international structure in the early days of post-Cold War;it then gave way to the overwhelming multipolarism. However,the rise of bipolarism in recent years has posed challenges against multipolarism,wherein,the two poles refer to China and the US,and their basic indicator is defined by the economic aggregate. Nevertheless,bipolarism has not yet gained unanimous consensus as China still has incomplete aggregative indicator. The co-existence of bipolarity and multipolarity in subjective cognition and objective reality marks a unique phenomenon of today’s international structure,and their relations can be defined by a bipolar structure in a multipolar framework,or a multipolar structure with two dominant poles. This is a mirror of the complexity and contradiction of the international structure in reality,and the status will be maintained in the long run with a trend of forming stronger bipolar structure features. As one of the poles,China should be guided by the general theory and concept of multilateralism instead of multipolarism. Decoupled from any specific international structure,multilateralism enables China to remain unaffected by changes in its own status,align its diplomatic theory with varied international structures,and contribute to hold the theoretical basis of Sino-Russian international cooperation.