工业碳排放与城市绿色发展研究

Industrial Carbon Emission Measurement andUrban Green Development Path Research

采用直接碳排放系数法,核算合肥市2007—2017年工业碳排放总量、工业GDP碳强、人均碳强和地均碳强;分析了这些因素与城市绿色发展关系;借助压力状态响应(PSR)模型,构建城市绿色发展水平评价体系;运用综合指数法和物理学容量耦合模型,对合肥市绿色发展水平进行时间序列动态评价;采用Pearson相关系数法对合肥市工业碳排放与城市绿色发展水平进行关联性分析。结果表明,(1)研究时段2007—2017年,合肥市工业碳排放量总体呈增长趋势;(2)2007-2017年合肥市工业GDP碳强呈波动下降趋势,人均碳强和地均碳强先增后降特征明显;(3)合肥市城市绿色发展水平总体呈增长趋势,研究时段由较低水平提升到较高偏中等水平,未达到高级水平,且与高级发展水平存在较大差距;(4)工业碳排放与城市绿色发展水平关系呈复杂特征,表现为工业GDP碳强、人均碳强、地均碳强与城市绿色发展系统及其子系统关系各不相同。

Using the direct carbon emission coefficient method,the total industrial carbon emissions,the carbon intensity of industrial GDP,the carbon intensity of per capita and the carbon intensity of per capita in 2017 in Hefei were calculated,and the relationship between these factors and urban green development was analyzed,the assessment system of urban green development level is constructed,and the time series dynamic assessment of Hefei green development level is carried out by using the comprehensive index method and physical capacity coupling model Pearson Correlation Coefficient method was used to analyze the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and urban green development level in Hefei.The results show that,(1)during the research period from 2007 to 2017,the industrial carbon emissions of Hefei City generally showed an increasing trend,of which 2011-2012 was a rapid growth step node,and before 2011 and after 2012,the growth was slow;(2)In 2007-2017,the industrial carbon intensity of Hefei City showed a fluctuating downward trend.The per capita carbon intensity and the average carbon intensity of the land were increased first and then decreased.(3)The urban green development level of Hefei City showed an overall growth trend,and the research period was lower.The level has risen to a higher and middle level,but has not reached the advanced level,and there is a big gap with the high level of development;(4)the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and urban green development level is complex,manifested as strong industrial GDP carbon and per capita carbon.The average carbon intensity is different from the urban green development system and its subsystems.In view of the above conclusions,four paths for the urban green development level of Hefei City are given.