灰色系统理论在我国新型冠状病毒肺炎发展的应用研究

Application Research on the Development Of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Based on the Grey Theory in China

运用灰色关联度理论,对新型冠状病毒肺炎累计确诊病人人数与新增确诊病人人数、新增死亡病人人数、新增治愈病人人数、新增疑似病人人数进行了灰色关联度分析.1)灰色普通关联度为0.9988-0.9872,说明累计确诊人数与其他4个指标有着非常密切的关联关系;2)灰色相对关联度在0.51-0.65之间,说明累计确诊人数的增长速率与其他4个指标的增长速率的关联度为中等关联度;3)灰色绝对关联度在0.51-0.58之间,说明累计确诊人数与其他4个指标的绝对关联程度为中等关联度.灰色预测的结论:除累计确诊人数在缓慢增加外,其他4个指标都在快速下降.这说明我国的防控措施非常有效.

Based on the Grey theory,The grey correlation analysis is carried out the cumulative number of patients diagnosed with new coronavirus number of confirmed patients,newly increased confirmed patients,newly increased deaths,the newly increased recurred number,newly increased of suspected patients.(1)Grey general correlation degree is 0.9988-0.9872,indicatingthat it is very close relation between the cumulative number of patients diagnosed and the four indicators;(2)Gray relative relevance is 0.51-0.65,indicating that it is middle relation between the cumulative number of patients diagnosed and the four indicators;(3)Gray absolute degree of incidence is 0.51-0.58,indicating that the absolute correlation degree between the cumulative number of confirmed cases and the other four indicators is moderate.The other four indicators are declining rapidly.This shows that China's prevention and control measures are very effective.