摘要
通过分析贝叶斯网络在风险评价中的适用性,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的桥区水域风险评价模型.引起船舶撞桥事故的航行风险因素是根据统计分析数据并结合专家意见得出的,运用贝叶斯网络对桥区水域风险因素进行建模.以东海大桥为例,研究了风险状态,通过计算得到了船舶撞桥的可能性.结果表明,船舶撞桥事故的主要是由人员的疏忽、操作失误和恶劣的天气等引起.
This paper analyzes the applicability of Bayesian Network in risk assessment,a risk assessment model in waters adjoining bridge is proposed based on Bayesian Network.Navigational risk factors caused accidents of Shipbridge collisions are determined by statistical analyzing of existing accidents data combine with the expertise and are modeled by Bayesian Network.Taking East Sea Bridge as an example,the study analyze the risk status there and get the probability of Ship-bridge collisions by calculation.The result indicates that the main causes of Ship-bridge collisions are Negligence,Mis-operation and Bad Meteorological condition.
作者
田五六
何艺宏
王群朋
孟贝贝
袁松才
TIAN Wu-liu;HE Yi-hong;WANG Qun-peng;MENG Bei-bei;YUAN Song-cai(Maritime college,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou Guangxi 535000,China;Qinzhou Maritime Navigation And Antifouling Key Laboratory,Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou Guangxi 535000,China;Guangxi Engineering Technology Research Center of Ship Digital Design and Advanced Manufacturing Beibu Gulf University,Qinzhou Guangxi 535000,China;School of Navigation,Guangzhou Maritime University,Guangzhou Guangdong 510725,China)
出处
《广州航海学院学报》
2020年第3期6-11,共6页
Journal of Guangzhou Maritime University
基金
广西自然科学基金:智能船舶技术中避碰决策及冲突消解策略研究(2018JJB160093)
钦州市科学研究与技术开发计划项目:基于船载监控传感网络事件容错检测的海上风险预测研究(20198521)。
关键词
贝叶斯网络
桥区
风险分析
船舶事故
Bayesian Network
bridge areas
risk analysis
marine incident
