美国对华实施金融制裁的预判与应对策略

US Financial Sanctions against China:Forecasts and Respond

通过近年来美国对一些国家实施金融制裁的机理和效应分析判断,未来美国很可能利用中美之间在经济和政治方面的摩擦,在金融领域发起对中国的制裁。采用的方式包括延迟或减免支付对华巨额的政府债务;冻结或没收中国在美资产;提高中国企业的国际融资成本,限制或取消在美融资;切断中国被制裁对象获取美元能力和使用美元渠道;通过发行新货币废除旧币,使中国持有的巨额美元资产缩水,进行巨额掠夺。为此,中国应实施金融对等开放战略,改革和完善外汇储备管理体制,构建外汇储备安全管理框架和体系,建立健全应对金融制裁的法律体系和实施机制,有效防范和化解国外金融制裁风险,同时推动国际货币体系改革,稳步推进人民币国际化,争取主动权,提升中国的国际货币权力。

Based on the analysis and judgment of the mechanism and effects of financial sanctions imposed by the United States on some countries in recent years,the United States is likely to use the economic and political frictions between China and the United States to initiate sanctions against China in the financial field.Sanction measures include delaying or reducing the payment of huge government debts to China,freezing or confiscating Chinese assets in the United States,raising the cost of international financing for Chinese enterprises,limiting or eliminating U.S.financing,cutting off the abilities of acquiring US dollars and the channels of using US dollars from China’s sanctioned subjects,and heavily plundering China which holds huge US dollar assets by issuing a new currency in substitution of the old currency.Therefore,China ought to implement the strategy of financial reciprocal opening-up,improve the management system of foreign exchange reserves,build a safety management framework and system of foreign exchange reserves,and establish the legal system and enforcement mechanisms in response to financial sanctions,thus effectively preventing and reducing the risk of foreign financial sanctions.China should also advance the international monetary system reform and steadily promote the internationalization of RMB in order to weaken the hegemony of the US dollar and to enhance the power of RMB as the international currency.