新型农业经营主体信贷风险的识别与防范研究

Research on Credit Risk Identification and Prevention of New Agricultural Business Entities

新型农业经营主体信贷风险既具有一般小农户信贷风险周期性和季节性的特征,又具有规模企业信贷风险复杂性和关联性的特征。因此,要破解新型农业经营主体信贷约束,必须从源头上进行分析,识别防范信贷过程中的不确定性因素。本文基于1165份新型农业经营主体有效信贷样本实证调查,设置包含3个一级指标、10个二级指标和33个三级指标的新型农业经营主体信贷风险影响因素评定指标体系,对新型农业经营主体信贷风险及其影响因素进行分类筛选和有效性验证,并运用Probit模型,对从事经济作物、大田作物和畜牧养殖生产经营的三类主体进行关键风险影响因素识别。结果显示:不同类别新型农业经营主体的信贷风险影响因素存在着明显差异,且畜牧养殖类新型农业经营主体信贷风险的影响因素相对最多,也最复杂。因此,应采取设立差别化准入门槛和审批条件、基于第一还款来源构建风险识别体系、利用金融科技手段降低信息不对称、利用供应链金融场景化分散降低风险等手段防范新型农业经营主体信贷风险的发生。

The credit risk of new agricultural business entities not only has the characteristics of cyclical and seasonal credit risk of ordinary small farmers,but also has the characteristics of complexity and relevance of credit risk of large-scale enterprises.Therefore,to break the credit constraints of the current new agricultural business entities,it is necessary to analyze from the source and identify and prevent uncertainties in the credit process.Based on an empirical survey of 1165 samples of effective credit for new agricultural business entities,this paper sets up a credit risk impact assessment index system for new agricultural business entities that includes 3 primary indicators,10 secondary indicators and 33 tertiary indicators.This paper classifies and screens the credit risks of new agricultural business entities and their influencing factors and verifies their effectiveness,and uses the Probit model to identify key risk influencing factors for the three types of entities engaged in the production and operation of cash crops,field crops and livestock breeding.The results show that there are obvious differences in the credit risk factors of different types of new agricultural business entities,and the credit risk factors of the new livestock farming agricultural business entities are relatively the most and most complex.Therefore,measures such as setting up differentiated entry thresholds and approval conditions,building a risk identification system based on the first repayment source,using financial technology to reduce information asymmetry,and using supply chain financial scene dispersion to reduce risks should prevent risks from occurring.