2020年疫情对中国经济的影响及应对策略

The Impact of the Epidemic in 2020 on China's Economy and Its Countermeasures

2020年春节伊始,一场突如其来的新冠肺炎疫灾给人民群众的生命安全和身体健康造成了重大的损失,也给社会的生产生活和国家的经济发展带来了严重的影响。这场疫情造成的经济损失有多大,我国应采取何种策略以使损失降至最低,保持经济平稳健康发展,是一个具有重大现实意义的问题。对疫情发展趋势进行了分析研判,结合与非典比较、产业分析、总需求分析和地域分析四种方法,对疫情对经济造成的损失进行了客观评估,并从经济的视角提出了应对灾害的切实有效的应对策略。结果显示,本次疫情造成的经济损失约为40000亿元,约占GDP的4%。疫情对经济的影响是阶段性和有限的,3月底疫情过后,我国经济仍将以6%左右的速度增长,但在政府对经济不干预的条件下,全年的经济增长率将为2%。

At the beginning of the Spring Festival in 2020,a sudden COVID-19 epidemic not only caused great losses to the people's life and health,but also had a serious impact on the production and living of the society and the economic development of the country.How great is the economic loss caused by this epidemic,and what strategies should be adopted by our country to minimize the loss and maintain stable and healthy economic development is a problem of great practical significance.Based on the analysis and judgment of the development trend of the epidemic,combined with the four methods of comparison with SARS,industrial analysis,aggregate demand analysis and regional analysis,the economic losses caused by the epidemic were objectively evaluated.And practical and effective strategies to deal with disasters are put forward from the perspective of economy.The results show that the economic loss caused by this epidemic is about 4 trillion yuan,accounting for about4%of GDP.The impact of the epidemic on the economy is phased and limited.After the epidemic at the end of March,China's economy will still grow at a rate of about 6%.However,under the condition that the government does not intervene in the economy,the economic growth rate for the whole year will be2%.