草原生态补奖政策对祁连山北坡农牧户家庭收入的影响分析

Effect of Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy on Household Income of Farmers and Herdsmen on the Northern Slope of Qilian Mountains

在草原生态保护补助奖励政策背景下,以祁连山北坡农牧户家庭收入为考察对象,采用多元线性回归法探究农牧户家庭收入的影响因素,并运用分位数回归法分析各因素对不同收入水平家庭影响的差异。结果表明:(1)祁连山北坡纯牧区和半农半牧区的农牧户在收入结构上存在显著差异,主要收入来源不同,纯牧区农牧户的主要收入来源为畜牧收入和草原生态补贴收入,分别占总收入的51.09%和30.69%,而半农半牧区农牧户主要收入来源为非农收入,占比达51.17%;(2)户草地面积、自家畜牧时间占比、非农就业时间占比等因素对家庭纯收入有显著的正向影响,当畜牧时间占比、非农就业时间占比分别提高1%时,家庭年纯收入分别提高2909.7元和2649.8元,户草地面积每增加1hm 2,家庭年纯收入增加6.7元;(3)处于纯牧区对家庭纯收入有显著影响;(4)各影响因素对不同收入水平的农牧户影响程度不同,畜牧时间占比、非农就业时间占比和草地面积对家庭收入的贡献不均匀,随着家庭收入从低分位点到高分位点逐渐增高,表明上述影响因素对收入更高的家庭有更大的正向影响。

Under the background of grassland ecological compensation policy,the household income of farmers and herdsman on the northern slope of Qilian mountains was taken as object of the study,the multiple linear regression method was used to analyze the factors affecting the income of farmer and herdsmen,and the quantile regression method was used to analyze the differences of the influence of each factor on families with different income levels.The results show that:(1)There were significant differences in the income structure between animal-husbandry region and agriculture-animal-husbandry region.The main income sources of farmers and herdsmen in animal-husbandry region was animal husbandry income and grassland ecological subsidy income,accounting for 52.09%and 30.69%of the total income,respectively,while those in agriculture-animal-husbandry region were non-agricultural income,accounting for 51.17%of the total income.(2)Grassland area,the proportion of animal husbandry time and non-agricultural employment time had significant positive effects on family net income.When the proportion of animal husbandry time and non-agricultural employment time increased by 1%,the annual net income of families increased by 2909.9 yuan and 2649.8 yuan,respectively,and each household increased grassland area by one hectare,the annual net income of family increased by 6.7 yuan.(3)Being in animal-husbandry region had a significant impact on family net income.(4)These factors above-mentioned contributed unevenly to the household income of farmers and herdsmen.With the increase of family income from low to high quantiles,the above factors had a greater positive impact on families with higher income.