农业环境、小麦价格对小麦生产效率影响研究——基于对小麦主产区面板数据分析

Research on the Influence of Agricultural Environment and Wheat Price on Wheat Production Efficiency——Based on the panel data analysis of the main wheat producing areas

保护农业生态环境,稳定小麦价格,是关乎我国粮食安全的重中之重。本文利用超效率SBM模型测算了小麦主产区各省1999-2019年小麦生产效率变化,并利用Tobit模型分析了最低收购价政策下农业环境、小麦价格、财政支农、抗灾能力、农业人口占比对小麦生产效率的影响。研究发现:从小麦主产区整体来看,农业人口占比对小麦生产效率有显著负向影响,财政支农水平、抗灾能力、小麦价格对小麦生产效率有显著正向影响,农业环境(化肥、农药、农膜)、机械化水平对小麦生产效率影响不显著。本文最后提出转变农业发展方式,加强农业科技服务的建议,以期提高小麦生产效率。

Protecting the agricultural ecological environment and stabilizing the price of wheat are the top priorities for my country's food security.This paper uses the super-efficiency SBM model to measure the changes in wheat production efficiency in the main wheat producing regions from 1999 to 2019.And using the Tobit model to analyze the impact of agricultural environment,wheat prices,financial support for agriculture,disaster resistance,and the proportion of agricultural population on wheat production efficiency under the minimum purchase price policy.The study found:Looking at the main wheat producing areas as a whole,The proportion of agricultural population has a significant negative impact on wheat production efficiency.The level of fiscal support to agriculture,disaster resistance,and wheat prices have a significant positive impact on wheat production efficiency.The agricultural environment(chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films)and the level of mechanization have no significant impact on wheat production efficiency.In the end,this article puts forward suggestions on transforming agricultural development methods and strengthening agricultural science and technology services in order to improve wheat production efficiency.