政府债券对货币供应量的影响研究

Research on the Influence of Government Bonds on Money Supply

在疫情防控新常态下,积极的财政政策将更加积极有为,政府债券①将以更大力度对冲新冠肺炎疫情带来的不利影响,助力经济社会恢复和发展,而随着政府债券发行规模的加快增长和中央银行公开市场操作频率的加快,政府债券在对货币供应量和货币政策的影响方面效应不断加大。基于中央银行和商业银行资产负债表的政府债券分析框架,探讨政府债券发行、流通和偿还对货币供应量的影响机制,并通过实证分析测算政府债券对货币供应量的影响程度,进而从界定好政府债券的效力边界、丰富政府债券品种、完善政府债券市场流通机制、发挥好政府债券在公开市场操作中对货币供应量的调节作用等方面提出政策建议。

Under the new normal of epidemic prevention and control,the active fiscal policy will be more active and promising,and government bonds will hedge the adverse impact of the epidemic with greater efforts to help economic and social recovery and development.With the accelerated growth of government bond issuance scale and the accelerated frequency of open market operations of the central bank,the effect of government bonds on money supply and monetary policy will continue to increase.Based on the analysis framework of government bonds in the balance sheets of central banks and commercial banks,this paper discusses the impact mechanism of government bonds issuance,circulation and repayment on money supply,and estimates the impact degree of government bonds on money supply through empirical analysis.Then,it puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of defining the effectiveness boundary of government bonds,enriching the varieties of government bonds,perfecting the circulation mechanism of government bonds market,and giving full play to the adjustment function of government bonds on money supply in open market operation.