浙江制造业转型升级的大学生就业效应探析

Influence of the Transformation and Upgrading of ManufacturingIndustry in Zhejiang on College Graduates Employment

基于浙江省2010—2019年的样本数据,对浙江制造业的产业结构和就业结构现状进行分析,并通过产业结构偏离度和就业弹性测算制造业及其内部三组类型产业的大学生就业吸纳能力,结果表明,技术密集型制造业发展是推动浙江制造业转型升级和拉动大学生就业的主力军。通过构建计量回归模型,分析浙江制造业转型升级对大学生就业的双重影响,实证结果显示,产业结构变动方向与大学生就业正相关,产业结构变动速度与大学生就业负相关,产业结构变动所带来的就业创造效应和就业破坏效应双重作用后的净效应促进了大学生就业。最后,提出制造业转型升级背景下促进大学生就业的政策建议。

Based on the sample data of Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019,this paper analyzes the evolution trend of industrial structure and employment structure of the manufacturing industry in Zhejiang.Through the degree of industrial structure deviation and employment flexibility,the employment absorption capacity of college graduates in the manufacturing industry and its internal three industry types is calculated.The results show that the development of technology-intensive manufacturing is the main force in promoting the transformation and upgrading of Zhejiang’s manufacturing industry and stimulating college graduates employment.By constructing an econometric regression model,the dual impact of Zhejiang’s manufacturing transformation and upgrading on college graduates employment is analyzed.The empirical results show that industrial structure change is positively related to college graduates employment while the speed of change is negatively related to college graduates employment.The net effect brought by the changes in industrial structure promotes college graduates employment.Finally,this paper proposes policy suggestions to promote college graduates employment under the background of manufacturing transformation and upgrading.