高质量发展背景下的区域能源碳排放规制研究——以浙江为例

Regulation of Regional Energy Carbon Emission under the Backgroundof High Quality Development:Taking Zhejiang as an Example

碳排放量指标目前已经超出应对气候变化范畴,成为推动我国高质量发展的有力抓手。经IPAT恒等式分解可知,碳排放量的驱动因素主要有常住人口、城镇化率、居民收入、产业结构、能源强度和能源结构,这些驱动因素都是高质量发展的具体表征指标。如何在规制排放增长的前提下实现高质量发展,各地应当根据区域排放量变化的异质性特征进行统筹。文章基于浙江碳排放量数据建立的误差修正模型显示,城镇化率与排放增长呈脱钩态势,产业结构、能源结构调整的减排功效存在短期与长期的反复拉锯现象。对产生这些异质性现象的原因进行分析,并据此提出相应的政策建议。

The carbon emission indicator has now exceeded the scope of addressing climate change and has become a powerful tool to promote high quality development in China.Through the decomposition of IPAT identities,the driving factors of carbon emission mainly include permanent population,urbanization rate,residents’income,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure,which are also specific indicators of high quality development.To achieve high quality development under the premise of regulating emission growth,all regions should make overall plans based on the heterogeneous characteristics of regional emission changes.The error correction model based on Zhejiang Province’s carbon emission data shows that urbanization rate and emission growth are decoupled,while the reduction effect of industrial structure and energy structure adjustments has a short-term and long-term repeated see-saw phenomenon.The causes of these heterogeneous phenomena are also analyzed in the paper and corresponding policy recommendations based on this are proposed.