水-能源-粮食纽带关系耦合模拟模型及案例研究

Water-Energy-Food Nexus Coupling Simulation Model and Case Study

水-能源-粮食纽带关系(Water-Energy-Food Nexus,WEF-Nexus)是可持续发展领域的新课题。为定量分析WEF-Nexus对区域水、能源、粮食的供应、需求、自给率产生的影响,在考虑资源纽带关系的基础上,基于生命周期理论和灰色预测方法构建了水-能源-粮食纽带关系耦合模拟模型。以江苏省为例,模拟其在不同情境下2017-2020年的资源供需、自给率及不同消费部门的满足度变化。结果表明:在保持当前趋势下,水资源自给率和粮食自给率暂时高于100%,但有下降趋势,能源自给率未达到90%;在调整能源生产结构和消费水平后,能源自给率和水资源自给率均有所提高;在调整粮食种植结构后,粮食自给率提高但用水量可能也会相应增加,不利于水资源自给率的提高。

Water-Energy-Food Nexus is a new subject in the field of sustainable development.In order to quantitatively analyze the influence of WEF-Nexus on the supply,demand and self-sufficiency of regional water,energy and food,a water-energy-food nexus coupling simulation model is built based on the life cycle theory and statistical methods,taking into account the resource linkage.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,the changes of resource supply and demand,self-sufficiency rate and satisfaction degree of different consumption sectors in different situations from 2013 to 2017 are simulated.The results show that:under the current trend,the self-sufficiency rate of water and food is temporarily higher than 100%,but there is a downward trend,and the self-sufficiency rate of energy is less than 90%.After the adjustment of energy production structure and consumption level,the self-sufficiency rate of energy and water resources will increase.After the adjustment of food planting structure,the self-sufficiency rate of food will increase,but the water consumption may also increase correspondingly,which is not conducive to the improvement of the self-sufficiency rate of water resources.