基于模糊VIKOR-FMEA的南水北调运行管理安全风险评估

Safety Risk Assessment of South-to-North Water Diversion Operation Management Based on Fuzzy VIKOR-FMEA

南水北调工程建成后的运行管理面临着诸多复杂风险因素,实现有效的风险管理对保障工程的安全运行至关重要。构建了基于模糊VIKOR-FMEA的南水北调运行管理安全风险分析模型。首先,专家团队采用语言变量针对FMEA中各种故障模式的严重程度(S)、发生频度(O)、不易探测度(D)进行风险评价;其次,以模糊层次分析法和最大偏差法分别构建风险因子权重分析矩阵,集成主客观权重获得风险因子的综合权重;再次,引入VIKOR对传统FMEA模型进行改进并用于风险优先数的计算。案例计算结果表明,防汛度汛不及时和维修养护不规范在工程安全运行管理中风险较大。最后与传统FMEA方法进行了对比,验证了所提方法的可行性和有效性,为南水北调运行管理风险分析提供了一种可借鉴的算法。

After the completion of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,the operation management is faced with many complex risk factors.Based on fuzzy Vlsekriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje(VIKOR)-failure mode and effects analysis(FMEA),a safety risk analysis model for South-to-North Water Diversion Operation Management is constructed.First,the expert team uses linguistic variables to evaluate the severity of each failure mode(S),frequency of occurrence(O),and difficulty of detection(D)in the FMEA.Then,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the maximal deviation approach are used to construct risk factor weight.The risk factor weight analysis matrix integrates the subjective and objective weights to obtain the comprehensive weights of the risk factors.Secondly,VIKOR is introduced to improve the traditional FMEA model and is used to calculate the risk priority number.The case study results show that untimely flood control and irregular maintenance are the greatest risks in safety operation management.Finally,it is compared with the traditional FMEA method,which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method,which provides a reference algorithm for the risk analysis of operation management for the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.