基于LCOE模型的光伏发电经济效益分析:以宜昌农村地区光伏扶贫电站项目为例

Economic Benefit Analysis on Photovoltaic Power Generation with LCOE Model:the Case of Poverty Alleviation Project in Rural Areas of Yichang City

光伏发电是我国重要的清洁能源发展战略,也是资产收益扶贫的重要方式.为了探讨光伏发电项目对政策的依赖性及其在经济上的可持续性,采用平准化度电成本(LCOE)模型开展研究,并开发出平准化度电净现值(LNPVE)模型用于研究光伏发电项目的长期经济效益及其影响因素.将上网电价与补贴作为效益指标引入LCOE模型,即得到LNPVE,LNPVE为折现度电收入和折现度电成本之差.LNPVE模型不仅能将政策因素引入经济效益分析中,同时还能考虑效益变动,从而分析光伏发电项目的经济可持续性.以宜昌市长阳土家族自治县渔峡口镇村级光伏扶贫电站项目为案例的分析表明,从LCOE模型结果来看,案例项目能够实现经济效益;然而从LNPVE模型结果来看,现行补贴上网电价下案例项目的长期经济效益仍存在不确定性,且这种不确定性随着光伏发电上网电价补贴“退坡”政策的出台而有所强化.敏感性分析结果表明,影响案例项目经济效益的首要因素是技术因素,其次是政策因素,再者是经济因素.若案例项目以无补贴标杆电价平价上网,则需将单位造价降低19.3%或者年利用小时数提高14.8%;若要进一步实现以燃煤发电上网电价平价上网,则需将单位造价降低97.0%或者年利用小时数提高182.1%.因此,应当针对光伏发电特别是村级光伏扶贫项目实施必要的电价补贴,将补贴“退坡”与提高光伏发电效率相结合,并将有针对性地提高补贴效率作为光伏电价补贴的重点,同时高度重视技术改进及推广应用和运营维护的成本降低及质量提高,以持续实现光伏发电项目的经济效益.

Photovoltaic power generation is an important strategy to develop clean energy in China,and an important way to alleviate poverty through asset income.In order to explore the dependence of photovoltaic power generation project on policies and its economic sustainability,the Levelized Cost of Electricity(LCOE)model was applied in this study.Further,a Levelized Net Present Value of Electricity(LNPVE)model was developed to explore the long-term economic benefits as well as the influencing factors of photovoltaic power generation project.With feed-in tariffs and subsidies integrated into the LCOE model,LNPVE is achieved by reflecting the differences between discounted benefits and costs of unit power generation.The LNPVE model introduces the policy factors into the economic benefits analysis while taking the benefit changes into account.Thus the economic sustainability of photovoltaic power generation projects can be revealed.The village-level photovoltaic poverty alleviation power project in Yuxiakou Town,Changyang Tujia Autonomous County of Yichang City was analyzed as a case.It was concluded that the case project could achieve economic benefits according to the results of LCOE model.However,LNPVE model revealed that the long-term economic benefits of the case project at the current level of subsidized feed-in tariffs were not certain,and this uncertainty would be reinforced with the decline of the feed-in tariff subsidy in the photovoltaic power generation policies.The sensitivity analysis results showed that the dominant factor influencing the economic benefits of the case project was the technical factor(indicated by annual utilization hours),followed by the policy(reflected by benchmark price and feed-in tariff subsidy)and the economic ones(represented by unit initial cost).For the subsidy-free grid parity at the benchmark price,the unit investment cost of the case project should be reduced by 19.3%,or the generating equipment availability hours should be increased by 14.8%.If the benchmark price was further reduced to the level of coal-fired power on-grid price,the unit investment cost should be reduced by 97.0%,or the generating equipment availability hours should be increased by 182.1%.Therefore,necessary subsidies on feed-in tariffs should be remained for photovoltaic power generation at present,especially for village-level photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects.The feed-in tariff subsidy decline should be integrated with the improvement of photovoltaic power generation efficiency.In this way,the emphasis is on improving the efficiencies of subsidies,and attention should be paid to technology advancement and application,as well as cost reduction and quality improvement of operation and maintenance,so as to sustainably realize the economic benefits of photovoltaic power generation projects.