大型石化港区安全风险评估指标体系与评估方法

Indicator system and assessment method of safety risk of large petrochemical port area

针对大型石化港区安全风险评估实践中评估层次不分明、重点不突出、措施针对性不强的问题,构建了以风险特征、风险防控能力、区域应急能力等为基本指标的指标体系,基于层次分析法建立了安全风险计算数学模型。结合国内大型石化港区安全管理现状提出了安全风险分级划分标准,最终实现了对大型石化港区区域安全风险水平的量化评估。将此方法应用于某典型大型石化港区的安全风险评估,得出其区域安全风险为等级Ⅲ(较大风险)的结论。

Aiming at the problems of unclear assessment level,unfocused emphasis,and poorly targeted measures in the safety risk assessment practice of large-scale petrochemical port areas,this paper constructs an indicator system based on inherent risk factors,risk prevention and control capability as the basic indicators,and establishes the mathematic model of safety risk calculation based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP).Combined with the safety management status of large domestic petrochemical port areas,the classification standards for security risks are proposed,and finally a quantitative assessment of the regional security risk level of large petrochemical port areas is realized.Empirical research is carried out by safety risk assessment of a typically large petrochemical port area,it is concluded that the regional safety risk is level Ⅲ(larger risk).