政府主导产业发展模式的边界条件——高铁与通信设备行业比较启示

Boundary Conditions of Government-led Industrial Development Model:Based on the Comparison of High-speed Railway and Communication Equipment Industry Inspiration

高铁装备在政府主导推动的发展模式下取得了重大突破,市场主导、政府辅助发展模式下的通信设备也同样取得了较好成绩。对高铁和通信设备行业从政府作用模式、技术创新范式、行业进入壁垒等维度比较分析发现,我国高铁设备在过去十几年的后发追赶中具有渐进性创新、行业进入壁垒较高等特征,而通信设备则具有激进式创新、有较大的边缘市场特征。对政府主导产业发展的边界条件初步探讨后认为,在激进式创新、市场需求不确定性大、具有边缘市场和领先用户、行业进入壁垒不高等特征的行业领域,要慎用政府主导产业发展模式。

High-speed railway equipment has made a major breakthrough under the development mode led by the government,and communication equipment under the development mode led by the market and aided by the government has also achieved good results.For high-speed and action mode of the government,the communications equipment industry technology innovation paradigm,industry barriers to entry and other dimensions of the comparative analysis found that China's high-speed rail equipment in the past dozen years the coma after has the characteristics of high incremental innovation,industry barriers to entry,and communications equipment has the edge of the radical innovation,a larger market.On the basis of this understanding,this paper discusses the boundary conditions of government-led industry development,and holds that the development mode of government-led industry should be used with caution in the industry fields characterized by radical innovation,great uncertainty of market demand,marginal market and leading users,and low barriers to industry entry.