网络口碑中的剧透效应——来自电影市场的证据

Spoiler Effect in Online Word-of-Mouth:Evidence from the Movie Market

网络口碑是消费者购买决策的重要依据,然而对于叙述型产品(如电影产品),消费者阅读口碑内容的同时也存在着被剧透的风险。目前学界关于剧透的研究主要聚焦于剧透对消费者实际体验的影响,尚未有研究涉及剧透与叙述型产品绩效间的关系。本研究基于直觉预测与聚焦错觉的研究视角,以电影市场为研究情境,结合豆瓣网的口碑数据和中国票房网的电影票房数据,构建了联立方程模型,对网络口碑中的剧透效应进行了探究,研究发现剧透对电影票房具有显著的负面影响,但这种影响仅作用于电影上映的前两周。此外,剧透还会调节网络口碑对电影票房的影响。具体来说,剧透会强化口碑的数量作用,但会削弱口碑的效价作用。电影类型方面,本文发现剧透对喜剧和悬疑类电影票房具有更强的负面影响。研究还发现,剧透对于消费者感知质量不同的电影有着不同的影响:对于高感知质量电影的票房,剧透具有负面的影响,但对于低感知质量电影的票房,剧透却具有正面的影响。不同于以往的研究,本文首先关注了剧透与电影票房的关系,丰富了剧透研究的视角。本研究结论有助于电影商和口碑平台加深对剧透的认识,制定更为完善的口碑运营策略。

Electronic word-of-mouth(eW OM)plays a vital role in consumer purchasing decisions.However,for the narrative products such as movies and books,when consumers browse eW OM information,the content of eW OM may contain the plot information of narrative products which can impose spoiler effect on consumers.Previous research on spoilers mainly focuses on the impact of the spoilers on consumers`actual experience,but the relationship between spoilers and narrative product performance has not been studied.To fill this gap,this study investigates the spoiler effect in the movie market based on the research perspective of intuitive prediction and focusing illusion.This study collects eW OM data from Douban.com and weekly movie box office data from Cbooo.cn,conducts a simultaneous equations model to explore the impact of spoilers on movie box office and how this impact changes over time.This study also examines the moderating effect of spoilers on the eW OM metrics(eW OM volume,eW OM valence and eW OM variance).The result shows that spoilers have a negative impact on movie box office,but this impact is significant only in the first two weeks after the movie release.Furthermore,we find that spoilers can moderate the impact of eW OM on movie box office.Specifically,spoilers will reinforcement the volume impact of eW OM,but impair the potency impact of eW OM.In terms of movie genres,we find that spoilers have a stronger negative impact on the box office of comedy movies and suspense movies.Moreover,we also find that spoilers have different impact on movies with different consumer perceived quality.For movies with high consumer perceived quality,spoilers have a negative impact on movie box office,but for movies with low consumer perceived quality,the impact of spoilers can impose a positive impact on movie box office.Different from previous research,this study is the first to examine the relationship between spoilers and narrative product performance and it enriches the perspective of research on spoilers.The conclusions of this study can alert movie producers and marketers to the important role of spoilers in the movie market,help them learn more about spoilers and develop more appropriate word-of-mouth operation strategies.